Archive for October 23rd, 2008

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More on the 2-point lead in PA

October 23, 2008

LA Times:

Perhaps the Pennsylvania strategy embraced by the John McCain campaign makes sense after all.

The strategy has prompted skepticism. But much buzz today surrounds the apparently inadvertent leak of an internal poll by Barack Obama’s campaign in Pennsylvania that supposedly showed the Democrat leading there by only 2 percentage points — a much-slimmer margin than independent surveys have recorded for him and one that would make the race for the state a tossup.

An e-mail from a local Obama aide expressing concern about the internal poll’s findings ended up in the queue of a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. He, in turn, interviewed Sean Smith, the Obama communications director for Pennsylvania.

Their chat can be heard here; as the host notes after it’s over, Smith doesn’t dispute that the campaign’s own polling gauged Pennsylvania a tossup.

And that may explain a related story making the rounds — a report that Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, the politically savvy Ed Rendell, described himself in a memo as “a little nervous” about Obama’s standing in his state as he requested that the candidate return there soon for some more on-the-ground campaigning.

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More Pennsylvania

October 23, 2008

Hotair seems to agree with me:

Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.

“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”…

The McCain campaign’s formula for winning the state begins with the notion that, despite voter registration gains and strong support for Obama in Philadelphia, it would be difficult to wring more votes out of the state’s largest city than the Kerry campaign did.

They even believe they can carry a few of the heavily Democratic city’s 66 wards, a feat George W. Bush was unable to accomplish in 2004.

“We’re not convinced they can blow it out again,” said a McCain campaign source.

And in the four populous and historically Republican collar counties surrounding Philadelphia, the campaign believes McCain is a far better fit for the socially moderate suburbs than President Bush.