Trust, But Verify – Electoral Map Outcome Prediction – McCain Wins.

November 3, 2008

TBV and Hotair’s numbers are in line here:

Trust, But Verify believes John McCain will win over Barack Obama, 273-265. Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests a chance. The effect of Obama’s coal remarks will not make an effect in the polls, but may make a difference in the voting booth so we are moving PA to the McCain camp. Ed Morrisey writes:

Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling.  As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength.  The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points.  Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.

I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada.  Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states.  It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate.  I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point.  GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.

As far this site goes, recent movement in the northern region of Philadelphia as well as some recent backlash in Pittsburgh leads us to believe tha Pennsylvania can turn. In addition, the Hillary Clinton people are working harder than our people to win Pennsylvania. We seriously need to give her a cabinet seat if we pulll this off and give Will Bower some sort of medal of honor.

Virginia stays blue because of its population shift. Northern Virginia is completely populated by people who work in DC and that is a significant number of the vote which will go Democrat. Appalachia should stay ours, but not in numbers high enough to win the state. 

Colorado is a big if. Colorado is as close to a Libertarian state as we have in this Union and Libertarians have been a strange lot this time around. They are obviously in favour of cutting taxes and should support McCain’s anti-big government tendencies, but the “Myth of a Maverick” notion seems to be traveling far and hard. Expect Colorado to look tighter than the polls tell us. The Hispanic vote is overpolled and unreliable. That is the group that is most likely to stay home. In addition, Hispanics that do come out may well break for McCain as they delivered Florida to Bush in 2004.

Also, let us put forth one consideration that will effect tomorrow and the future of the relationship between Wal-Mart and the Republican party. There is a looming specter of card check which scares the pants off many union members. If Obama wins, he has already indicated that he is indebted to union leadership. Card check will pass. If we carry union membership this election, the party will look very different November 5 than it does November 4. Democrats still have room for expansion of their electorate base by incorporating huge numbers of non-voting youth who don’t have economic burdens as well as several other groups. The genius of Karl Rove was to get a non bloc-voting group, the Evangelicals to come out in huge numbers for our guy. As far as we can tell, we are out of new groups. It is a very distinct possibility that we will absorb big labor and make concessions to their leaders in the coming years to increase our numbers. In many ways, it is a marriage that makes sense, but it is a marriage that may well devastate some of our big money donors. Stay tuned.

In addition, if North Carolina is any indication, the youth vote continues to be unreliable. However, expect a signficant increase in the African American vote, especially in urban areas.

– editors



  1. Please send this link to a powerful show on what is truly at stake. There is still time to make sure this happens. Send this to every independent and undecided voter you know so they can get the truth.


  2. I used to try to create scenarios like this for the 2004 election in favor of Kerry. I hate to burst your bubble, but it’s not gonna work for you either.

  3. I REad where an Obama insider said that they know that the polls are skewed towards Obama …He said that they weren’t comfortable unless they had an 11 or more point lead..They also figure that anything less then 6 is a McCain victory while 6-10 is a tossup……

  4. Hey Workinstiff, I posted earlier about the anonymous Obama effect- https://trustbutverify.wordpress.com/2008/10/31/the-outbreak-of-anonymous-obama-blogger-defectors . I don’t put too much credibility in these anonymous leaks. The wendy button thing is one thing, but anything beyond that – let’s keep our hopes close to our chest.

  5. Someone mentinoed polls needing to be over 10. I too heard this. They said anything under 10 would probably go to McCain because of the Bradley effect and the trend of surveying more Democrats than Republicans. Example, Rasmussen shows even steven in most battleground states with McCain or Obama up in 1 or 2 by a very slim margin. However, if you read the fine print below it says 39.9% Democrats to 33.4% Republicans were polled. So, if you take that 6% and do the math McCain is up in every battleground state and down by .2 percentage points nationally. This will be tighter than 2000. And like in 2000, Republicans will be the victors. People are worried about Obama’s policies, inexperience, and lack of defense knowledge. His ideas were different at first, but people had plenty of time to think about it. This is why he wanted tv time to beat it into the brains of voters.

  6. Wow…you folks are really gonna have a bad headache by the time this evening is over! The neocon era has drawn to a close!

    BYE, BYE!

  7. Ellie,

    Do you even know what a Neo-Con is? Do you understand the difference when someone is a fiscally-conservative Republican? Or has Rachel Maddow and Olbermaan engrained their definition alongside Obama’s 600M marketing campaign?

    Obama: a “half-term” Senator from IL who hangs out with liberals, radicals, and those with anti-Israel and liberation-theological views, and who attended a race-baiting church for 20 years (although he wasn’t there that Sunday) – someone who never touts any of his accomplishments, and has a mainstream media that never questions him.

    Wow, you must love riding that bandwagon – remember though, you’ll never be a wealthy person b/c Obama is reducing the incentives to those who are upper-middle class and stirve to move into the what you would consider wealthy.

    Stay tuned … you must be part of the “measuring the drapes” crowd – McCain will win Pennsylvania and Obama supporters can take to the streets – we still have the 2nd Amendment right to defend our home.

  8. You guys crack me up. But this desperate wishful thinking is worse than when you tried to defend McCain’s naive socialist plan to fix the mortgage crisis. I don’t think there is any possible way you honestly think those numbers will come to fruition. Maybe you get bonus points with your right wing blogging homies for pretending that you do.

    El Jefe’s prediction: Obama 328, McCain 200

  9. Jefe is back!!! We missed our Alan Colmes! Well, we’ll have to wait until the polls close – I will be playing my “swing-state” drinking game with a few “one-shot” contests such as our favorite Murtha and the outgoing Dem. Senator from the great state of LouisiaJindal. Obama at 328?! Come back tomorrow – I will likely have a hangover, but one indicative of a great night for McCain.

  10. Jefe!!!!!! You have been with us since our lowly inceptions and are here today!!!!!!! We love you and thank you for coming back!!!!!!!!!!

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