Archive for November 4th, 2008

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Federal Judge Orders Virginia to “Preserve” Late-Arriving Military Ballots

November 4, 2008

I bet the Obama camp is trying to figure out how to best position their disagreement and likely appeal to this judge’s ruling to count military ballots.

The John McCain’s campaign filed suit Tuesday complaining that Virginia counties failed to send absentee ballots to military personnel soon enough for them to vote on time.

The lawsuit filed with the US District Court of eastern Virginia demands that the late arriving absentee ballots be counted as valid.

“There are many military service members and overseas voters who support Senator John McCain for president in the upcoming election and whose right to vote will be denied without relief from this court,” the suit said.

An estimated 1.3 million US military service members are eligible to vote using absentee ballots even if they are stationed in the United States.

More than 180,000 US troops are in Iraq and Afghanistan.The complaint argues that some Virginia counties sent out absentee ballots 35 days before the elections, which it contended was not enough time to ensure they would be received in time to vote.

Virginia law requires that the completed ballot be put in the mail by November 4 and received by local election officials by 7:00 pm November 14.

U.S. District Judge Richard Williams said Tuesday that he will hear the lawsuit on Nov. 10. He ordered election officials to keep the late-arriving ballots until then.

How great to see the Dems complain if VA came down to the absentee ballots cast by the members of the military fighting overseas.

– AP

 

Republican presidential candidate John McCain’s campaign filed suit Tuesday complaining that Virginia counties failed to send absentee ballots to military personnel soon enough for them to vote on time.

The lawsuit filed with the US District Court of eastern Virginia demands that the late arriving absentee ballots be counted as valid.

“There are many military service members and overseas voters who support Senator John McCain for president in the upcoming election and whose right to vote will be denied without relief from this court,” the suit said.

An estimated 1.3 million US military service members are eligible to vote using absentee ballots even if they are stationed in the United States.

More than 180,000 US troops are in Iraq and Afghanistan.

It was not known how many of them are registered to vote in Virginia.

The complaint argues that some Virginia counties sent out absentee ballots 35 days before the elections, which it contended was not enough time to ensure they would be received in time to vote.

Virginia law requires that the completed ballot be put in the mail by November 4 and received by local election officials by 7:00 pm November 14.

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Voter Fraudapalooza!!!!

November 4, 2008

Erick at Redstate has it summarized scarily:

Besides the Black Panthers, we have these lovely stories:

Philly is turning into a major problem spot for the election. I’m willing to bet that is intentional.

It looks like some Georgians have voted twice. The Secretary of State will probably push for criminal charges.

In New Hampshire the GOP has gone to court over possible voter fraud.

There’s voter fraud in Minneapolis with video!

In Louisiana, meet Leroy who promised to vote twice for Obama.

Then there is the fine, upstanding publisher of the Kansas City Star, who is registered in two different locations.

In addition to the Election Journal, the Vote Fraud Squad has more.

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GOP to go to Court in New Hampshire over Voter Fraud

November 4, 2008
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Even More Voting Irregularities in PA

November 4, 2008

First we have double voting. Good job ACORN.

Then we have this from redstate where people are being told that their polling location has been changed:

RS has received a tip that an unknown number of voters in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania are receiving phone calls informing them — falsely — that their voting stations have been relocated. At least 3 of the voters who received such calls determined that the information was false, and informed officials of this illegal attempt to prevent them from casting their ballots. The three specific cases that have come to our attention involve different precincts in Lancaster County, Pennsylvania — which may be the most important one in the nation for John McCain’s presidential bid.

In at least one case, the voter captured the phone number from which the call originated and later called back. The male who answered confirmed that he had placed the call. According to reversemobilephones.org, the number is assigned to a resident of Philadelphia.

This activity is a violation of the Pennsylvania Election Code, and the Lancaster County Board of Elections has been asked to investigate this activity — which may be more widespread — and refer the findings for possible prosecution.

I expect to have audio on this matter, and will update this story later with more.

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Why Exit Polls Will Be Wrong

November 4, 2008

Although he is a lefty, I have to say that the true star of this election cycle is Nate Silver, proprietor and master statistician behing fivethirtyeight. He called the primaries right using whatever magic mojo he uses. He calls a huge McCain loss, which we disagree with, but he also think exit polls WILL be wrong.

Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.

3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.

4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.

5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.

6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.

7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.

8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.

9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.

10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same. 

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Why Obama is leading in the polls

November 4, 2008

Say all you want about skewed polls and dispproportionate sample sizes.  This is why Obama is leading in the polls.  It is on the back of the uneducated who think government should pay your mortgage and gas.  Oh how public education has failed us all.

-reagan21

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Voter Fraud in Philadelphia Already

November 4, 2008

It appears that some voting machines Philadelphia already had votes cast for Obama before the polls even opened. Amanda Carpenter of Town Hall notes:

I’m getting a tip that voting machines in Philadelphia were showing votes for Obama BEFORE the polls even opened

In the run-up to Election Day there was a nasty, partisan scuffle with the Board of Elections. Four GOP workers were removed by a liberal judge because they were “the minority party.” They purged the Republicans and deprived them of the ability to supervise the voting process.

The same thing happened in the City of Brotherly Love in 2004. About 2,000 votes were preemptively tallied for Kerry. Unrelated, but equally scary, there were reports of someone using a gun to intimidate poll workers there that year as well.

More from Redstate:

I went to Philadelphia last week as part of the ‘Lawyers for Bush’ campaign. We went to the ‘battleground state’ of Pennsylvania and were caught in a battle of physical force. We had heard about the political ‘ground war,’ but instead found ourselves in the middle of an outright war. At the end of the day, I was cornered in a parking lot by roughly 10 large men, whom the police later identified as ‘union goons.’ After trying to tip over the minivan I was sharing with another attorney, punching it relentlessly, breaking parts off and failing to drag us out, they chased us in and out of the dense urban traffic in their high-powered SUVs. Only after a frantic 911 call and a police roadblock were our assailants apprehended. Even then, a growing mob surrounded us and we had to be secreted out of town to safety by a police escort. Our experience was not unique; several other ‘Lawyers for Bush’ teams in Philadelphia reported similar violence.

Update: Amanda adds:

GOP Election Board members have been tossed out of polling stations in more than half a dozen polling stations in Philadelphia because of their party status.

A liberal judge previously ruled that court-appointed poll watchers could be NOT removed from their boards by an on-site election judge, but that is exactly what is happening.

It is the duty of election board workers to monitor and guard the integrity of the voting process.

Denying access to the minority (in this case Republican) poll watchers and inspectors is a violation of Pennsylvania state law. Those who violate the law can be punished with a misdemeanor and subjected to a fine of $1,000 and sent to prison between one month and two years.

Those on site as describing it as “pandemonium” and there may be video coming of the chaos.

Some of the precincts where Republicans have been removed are: the 44th Ward, 12th and 13th divisions; 6th Ward, 12th division; 32nd Ward, Division 28.

“Election board officials guard the legitimacy of the election process and the idea that Republicans are being intimidated and banned for partisan purposes does not allow for an honest and open election process,” said McCain-Palin spokesman Ben Porritt in a statement to Townhall.

The City of Brotherly Love was roiled in controversy during the 2004 election because of rigged voting machines that showed nearly 2,000 votes for Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry before the polls had opened. A man also used a gun to intimidate poll workers at Ward 30, division 11 in 2004.

UPDATE

MM and Hotair have a video of Black Panther Militants “guarding” the polling stations in Philadelphia.  City of Brotherly Love?