Posts Tagged ‘Pennsylvania’

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Is Pennsylvania Going Red?

October 29, 2008

Saw this from Hillbuzz. It all turns on Pennsylvania:

Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clinton’s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin — and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in Texas, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for Hillary and have spent many LONG hours with her in the trenches in all of those states. She’s smart, doesn’t BS, and never lies.

She says the same thing we do: John McCain will win Pennsylvania.

On November 4th, the news networks are going to be spinning and sputtering and playing catchup, but everything we see on the ground in PA is what we saw during the primaries: Obama has no shot of winning the Keystone State.

Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it.  Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter, for the simple fact that these “Reagan Democrats” weren’t identified and labeled until AFTER the election. 

No, Democrats for McCain are real, are voting for McCain right now, and are open and organized, as well as self-identifying.  Lynn Rothschild might be our poster gal, as one of the most prominent of our ranks, but it’s telling that everyone from Team Hillary that we know now works for McCain.  ALL OF US. Whether they are open about it, like we are, or are working quietly behind the scenes, we can’t think of a single person we worked with on a daily basis for Hillary who is now working on behalf of Obama.

We all truly believe that John McCain will work more closely with Hillary Clinton in the Senate and make it a priority to team up with her on legislation than Obama ever would. We also believe Obama winning this election means his supporters would actively seek to eliminate all Clinton loyalists from the Democratic Party, to consolidate his power base and purge anyone who is not 100% loyal to him.  For obvious reasons, those of us loyal to the Clintons will not let that happen without a fight.

But, this is all talking about leadership, and those of us who have invested two years of our lives in all of this — and have, in all honesty, spent every cent we had on this campaign. What about the regular voters?

Union members repeatedly tell all of us that they are lying to pollsters because the unions have been polling these people — and the unions will threaten people’s jobs if they don’t tow the union line. So, the people lie when asked whom they are supporting. But, the unions can’t control who they vote for on Election Day. And that’s when things are going to get interesting.

We do not believe Obama will carry Pittsburgh or Harrisburg in PA. He’ll win Philly, but not by the large margin he needs to take the state. You’ve heard Governor Ed Rendell is “worried” about Obama’s chances in Pennsylvania. That is an understatement. Obama will lose a state that hasn’t gone red in generations.

What’s happening here that’s not being reported is that “Reagan Democrats” who vote Republican whenever they feel that Democrats are out of touch, socialist, or too liberal are voting for McCain…and these people are being joined by PUMAs, DeMcCrats for McCain, Hillocrats, whatever you want to call them, who don’t like or trust Obama and who believe McCain/Palin would address the wants and needs of centrist Democrats much better than Obama ever would.

We personally believe this here at HillBuzz. That’s why we are doing this. We do not believe Obama will put the best interests of Americans first — instead, Obama will do what is best for Obama, the way he has always done. We do not trust this man or his socialist Kool-Aid and want no part of him.

In Pennsylvania, we are not alone.

The same people who ran the board for us in the primary — who assured us daily that the polls the media was pushing were wrong in claiming Obama would beat Clinton in PA — tell us on a daily basis that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania.  There’s a damn good chance this won’t even be close, if what people are seeing on the ground right now holds, and is indicative of the whole state.

DEMOCRATS are staffing McCain offices across the state. DEMOCRATS are phone banking and canvassing for McCain. DEMOCRATS are raising large sums to fund this last week of campaigning.

DEMOCRATS.

While hearsay on the ground is always one sided, I have been to a few events where I am hearing this.  To win this election, we need to win PA. I don’t think there is a chance in hell that we can win Pittsburgh, but I am interested in the union vote.  I have argued for some time that in the coming years, we are going to need to drop Wal-Mart and start courting the unions. Bush won a good percent of union members, but we need to expand that base. Todd and Sarah can do that.  She practically lives there now anyway.  Let’s hope on this

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More on the 2-point lead in PA

October 23, 2008

LA Times:

Perhaps the Pennsylvania strategy embraced by the John McCain campaign makes sense after all.

The strategy has prompted skepticism. But much buzz today surrounds the apparently inadvertent leak of an internal poll by Barack Obama’s campaign in Pennsylvania that supposedly showed the Democrat leading there by only 2 percentage points — a much-slimmer margin than independent surveys have recorded for him and one that would make the race for the state a tossup.

An e-mail from a local Obama aide expressing concern about the internal poll’s findings ended up in the queue of a radio talk show host in Wilkes-Barre, Pa. He, in turn, interviewed Sean Smith, the Obama communications director for Pennsylvania.

Their chat can be heard here; as the host notes after it’s over, Smith doesn’t dispute that the campaign’s own polling gauged Pennsylvania a tossup.

And that may explain a related story making the rounds — a report that Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, the politically savvy Ed Rendell, described himself in a memo as “a little nervous” about Obama’s standing in his state as he requested that the candidate return there soon for some more on-the-ground campaigning.

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More Pennsylvania

October 23, 2008

Hotair seems to agree with me:

Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.

“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing [Democratic Gov. Ed Rendell] with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”…

The McCain campaign’s formula for winning the state begins with the notion that, despite voter registration gains and strong support for Obama in Philadelphia, it would be difficult to wring more votes out of the state’s largest city than the Kerry campaign did.

They even believe they can carry a few of the heavily Democratic city’s 66 wards, a feat George W. Bush was unable to accomplish in 2004.

“We’re not convinced they can blow it out again,” said a McCain campaign source.

And in the four populous and historically Republican collar counties surrounding Philadelphia, the campaign believes McCain is a far better fit for the socially moderate suburbs than President Bush.

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The Pennsylvania Gambit

October 22, 2008

Since the convention, I have been arguing that Pennsylvania is the key to this election. In recent weeks, my argument has looked a bit ugly if we are to follow RCP. However, it should be noted that each of the RCP polls listed has a sample size of 500-700 and I don’t even know what methodology Morning Call and Susquehanna use.  SurveyUSA has been all over the place this year.  Recently, the McCain/Palin camp has been spending an inordinate amount of time in Pennsylvania. Cynics may see this as the Hail Mary, but I think there is something more to this. The rallies in Pennsylvania have been having marvelous turnout all extremely jazzed for Palin.  In addition, we have good old Jack Murtha calling his constituency racists and rednecks.He does this even though western Pennsylvania voted in favour of a black man, Lynn Swann, in the last gubernatorial race while urban Pennsylvania did not:

However, what Rendell fails to do is actually look at the county-by-county results of the 2006 gubernatorial election where he soundly dispatched of Lynn Swann by a 20-point margin. If Rendell had bothered to actually look at the election results, he would find that the reason Swann lost was because Lynn Swann got absolutely crushed in the Philadelphia region by 80% to 20% ratio, losing the City of Philadelphia by a 90% – 10% margin. That accounts for about 45% of the total statewide vote.

It was with the mostly white, moderate-to-liberal Philadelphia suburban voters (those supposedly enlightened enough to vote for a black candidate) that Rendell racked up the big margin over Mr. Swann that propelled him to victory. Furthermore, in the most liberal part of the state, the “City of Brotherly Love,” black voters voted 95% against the first black gubernatorial nominee in Pennsylvania of a major party.

When we turn our attention to the more rural, conservative areas of the state; we see that in 2006 not only did those areas vote for a black candidate, but that Rendell’s conservative-whites-that-won’t-vote-for-blacks voted for Lynn Swan in a greater numbers than Rick Santorum. In conservative bastions such as Cumberland, Dauphin, Perry and Adams counties Swann ran well ahead of Republican Rick Santorum. This despite the fact Santorum was better funded, better known and, by the way, white. Overall Lynn Swann ran ahead of Rick Santorum in rural central and Western Pennsylvania, where the state’s most conservative voters live.

It seems that there is some validity to my theory here. Ed Rendell has called upon Obama to come back to Pennsylvania for another rally before the election:

Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell has sent two separate memos to the Obama campaign in the past five days requesting that the Democratic Presidential candidate—as well as Hillary and Bill Clinton—return to campaign in Pennsylvania, Rendell told CNN’s Gloria Borger.

Rendell said the McCain campaign is clearly making a push to win Pennsylvania, given the recent visits by the Arizona senator, his wife and his running mate. As a result, he wants Obama to appear in western Pennsylvania, Harrisburg and one more “large rally” in Philadelphia. Democrats generally worry that the race is significantly closer than what recent polls have suggested. According to Rendell, there is also worry among Democrats the McCain campaign has successfully raised the enthusiasm level among Republicans in the state.

Realistically, I don’t know if Pennsylvania is winnable at this point, but I have no idea what McCain’s internal polling is showing.  Conventional wisdom would advise a deployment of Palin to Colorado to court the libertarian west, but hopefully they know something that I don’t.

UPDATE: Fantastic, I finish this post, switch over to Spectator and what do I see, the Other McCain has found that the One has a two point lead in Pennsylvania. R.S. McCain notes that the leak is attributed to an Obama organizer.

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Quinnipiac: Ugly But an Outlier

October 1, 2008

This shows McCain down by 8 in both Florida and Ohio and by double digits in Pennsylvania. I don’t put too much faith in it because most other polls show a virtula tie in Florida, a slight lead in Ohio and Pennsylvania being Pennsylvania.