Trust, But Verify – Electoral Map Outcome Prediction – McCain Wins.

TBV and Hotair’s numbers are in line here:

Trust, But Verify believes John McCain will win over Barack Obama, 273-265. Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests a chance. The effect of Obama’s coal remarks will not make an effect in the polls, but may make a difference in the voting booth so we are moving PA to the McCain camp. Ed Morrisey writes:

Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling.  As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength.  The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points.  Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.

I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada.  Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states.  It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate.  I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point.  GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.

As far this site goes, recent movement in the northern region of Philadelphia as well as some recent backlash in Pittsburgh leads us to believe tha Pennsylvania can turn. In addition, the Hillary Clinton people are working harder than our people to win Pennsylvania. We seriously need to give her a cabinet seat if we pulll this off and give Will Bower some sort of medal of honor.

Virginia stays blue because of its population shift. Northern Virginia is completely populated by people who work in DC and that is a significant number of the vote which will go Democrat. Appalachia should stay ours, but not in numbers high enough to win the state. 

Colorado is a big if. Colorado is as close to a Libertarian state as we have in this Union and Libertarians have been a strange lot this time around. They are obviously in favour of cutting taxes and should support McCain’s anti-big government tendencies, but the “Myth of a Maverick” notion seems to be traveling far and hard. Expect Colorado to look tighter than the polls tell us. The Hispanic vote is overpolled and unreliable. That is the group that is most likely to stay home. In addition, Hispanics that do come out may well break for McCain as they delivered Florida to Bush in 2004.

Also, let us put forth one consideration that will effect tomorrow and the future of the relationship between Wal-Mart and the Republican party. There is a looming specter of card check which scares the pants off many union members. If Obama wins, he has already indicated that he is indebted to union leadership. Card check will pass. If we carry union membership this election, the party will look very different November 5 than it does November 4. Democrats still have room for expansion of their electorate base by incorporating huge numbers of non-voting youth who don’t have economic burdens as well as several other groups. The genius of Karl Rove was to get a non bloc-voting group, the Evangelicals to come out in huge numbers for our guy. As far as we can tell, we are out of new groups. It is a very distinct possibility that we will absorb big labor and make concessions to their leaders in the coming years to increase our numbers. In many ways, it is a marriage that makes sense, but it is a marriage that may well devastate some of our big money donors. Stay tuned.

In addition, if North Carolina is any indication, the youth vote continues to be unreliable. However, expect a signficant increase in the African American vote, especially in urban areas.

– editors

The Outbreak of “Anonymous” Obama Blogger Defectors

Alright, I need to call shenanigans on this right now.  For the past few days, “anonymous” Obama bloggers have been posting as to how close the race really is and have indicated that Florida and several other swing states are not in play and are definitely going to McCain.  Hannity just cited Anonymous14 from redstate, which unfortunately, is having some serious server problems right now.  Our good friends at Hillbuzz (one of the finest sites on the Internet – congrats on being cited by Rush!) have an anonymous blogger named Sarah P who felt the need to come clean on Obama’s dirty Internet tricks:

Sprinkle in mass vote confusion and it becomes bewildering. Most people lose patience and just give up on their support of a candidate and decide to just block out tv, news, websites, etc.

This surprisingly has had a huge suppressing movement and vote turnout issues.

Next, we infiltrate all the blogs and all the youtube videos and overwhelm the voting, the comments, etc. All to continue this appearance of overwhelming world support.

People makes posts to the effect that the world has “gone mad”

Thats the intention. To make you feel stressed and crazy and feel like the world is ending.

We have also had quite a hand in skewing many many polls, some we couldn’t control as much as we would have liked. But many we have spoiled over. Just enough to make real clear politics look scarey to a mccain supporter. Its worked, alough the goal was to appear 13-15 points ahead.

see, the results have been working. People tend to support a winner, go with the flow, become “sheeple”

The polls are roughly 3-5 points in favor of Barack. Thats due to our inflation of the polls and pulling in the sheeple.

Our donors, are the same people who finance the MSM. Their interests are tied, Barack then tends to come across as teflon. Nothing sticks. And trust, there were meetings with Fox news. The goal was to blunt them as much as possible. Watch Bill Oreilly he has become much more diplomatic and “fair and balanced” and soft. Its because he wants to retain the #1 spot on cable news and to do that he has to have access to the Obama campaign and we worked hard at stringing him a long and keeping him soft for an interview swap. It worked and now he is anticipating more access. So he is playing it still soft.

Like Fox Mulder, we want to believe.  I don’t believe either one of these and encourage you to approach any other stories about internal Obama defectors with a grain of salt. They run a tight ship and would not let something like this happen and I really doubt they need to pay people to troll Internet sites. I doubt that our lovely liberal commenters are paid by Obama (they will be soon if he wins and starts redistributin’). They come here because they want to be enlightened and there is a huge chasm between their passion and their logic.

So, who do I think is perpetrating this fraud? It could be an eager but misguided Republican or disaffected Hillary voter who is trying to get our hopes up and encourage voter turnout. On the other hand, these anonymoids might be Obama plants meant to depress election day expectations. Who knows? At the end of the day, unless you trust the source, take all leaks like this with a grain of salt.

-Yossarian

LA National Organization for Women President Condemns New Obama Ad

Liberal Gender Traitor and President of the LA Chapter of the National Organization of Women (NOW) Shelly Mandell finds the new Obama ad which features Governor Palin to be offensive:

Shelly Mandell, president of Los Angeles chapter of the National Organization for Women: “I am outraged by the new ad put out by Barack Obama. It is sexist and demeaning to women. These tactics started with Hillary Clinton and continue, growing even more disgusting with Gov. Palin. I was a Hillstar for Hillary and an avid supporter. Trashing two women clearly in a sexist manner in one election is an outrage and must be identified and stopped. There must be consequences. Let female Obama supporters take a good look at this and still believe their candidate supports women’s rights and women’s dignity.”

In addition, several other prominent women are offended by Obama’s blatant sexism:

Prameela Bartholomeusz, DNC Platform Committee Member: “I am once again stunned at the personal and sexist attacks by the Obama campaign against Gov. Palin. This latest ad is sexist and offensive. The Gov. of Alaska has been managing and balancing a budget of $10 billion; I think she knows a bit about economics. Sen. Obama never spoke up against sexism during the primary season, and is not speaking out against misogyny during this phase of the election season — he is contributing to it. I have no confidence that Sen. Obama will fight for women’s issues if elected. This sets women back decades.”

Stephanie Bressler, Ph.D, Hillary Clinton supporter, University of Scranton women and politics professor: “It’s a sexist example of reducing a woman to an object – a wink – and denying her a voice. Her lips are actually moving, but she’s not allowed to be heard.”

Amy Siskind, ambassador for Hillary: “When Senator Hillary Clinton was demeaned and degraded during the Presidential Primary, many of us of, myself included, vowed ‘never again’. The treatment of Governor Palin by both the main stream media, and now the Obama Campaign, shows that the misogyny fest is alive and well in our country. There has been a complete and utter smear job of our fellow citizen, Sarah Palin, who is only trying to serve her country.”

Seriously though, Governor Sarah Palin is the epitome of what feminism has led to. A self-made woman who has balanced her femininity with her respect and has been able to raise a family without sacrificing a career.

Is Pennsylvania Going Red?

Saw this from Hillbuzz. It all turns on Pennsylvania:

Tonight we spoke with a friend from Hillary Clinton’s campaign who is now working for McCain/Palin — and is specifically working with Democrats for McCain in Pennsylvania. We worked with her in Texas, Indiana, Ohio, and Pennsylvania for Hillary and have spent many LONG hours with her in the trenches in all of those states. She’s smart, doesn’t BS, and never lies.

She says the same thing we do: John McCain will win Pennsylvania.

On November 4th, the news networks are going to be spinning and sputtering and playing catchup, but everything we see on the ground in PA is what we saw during the primaries: Obama has no shot of winning the Keystone State.

Here is specifically what we talked about tonight: never in any of our careers have any of us ever seen members of one party switching sides and voting for the other party as we see in this election with Democrats for McCain. There has never been anything like it.  Not even the “Reagan Democrats” who voted for Reagan over Carter, for the simple fact that these “Reagan Democrats” weren’t identified and labeled until AFTER the election. 

No, Democrats for McCain are real, are voting for McCain right now, and are open and organized, as well as self-identifying.  Lynn Rothschild might be our poster gal, as one of the most prominent of our ranks, but it’s telling that everyone from Team Hillary that we know now works for McCain.  ALL OF US. Whether they are open about it, like we are, or are working quietly behind the scenes, we can’t think of a single person we worked with on a daily basis for Hillary who is now working on behalf of Obama.

We all truly believe that John McCain will work more closely with Hillary Clinton in the Senate and make it a priority to team up with her on legislation than Obama ever would. We also believe Obama winning this election means his supporters would actively seek to eliminate all Clinton loyalists from the Democratic Party, to consolidate his power base and purge anyone who is not 100% loyal to him.  For obvious reasons, those of us loyal to the Clintons will not let that happen without a fight.

But, this is all talking about leadership, and those of us who have invested two years of our lives in all of this — and have, in all honesty, spent every cent we had on this campaign. What about the regular voters?

Union members repeatedly tell all of us that they are lying to pollsters because the unions have been polling these people — and the unions will threaten people’s jobs if they don’t tow the union line. So, the people lie when asked whom they are supporting. But, the unions can’t control who they vote for on Election Day. And that’s when things are going to get interesting.

We do not believe Obama will carry Pittsburgh or Harrisburg in PA. He’ll win Philly, but not by the large margin he needs to take the state. You’ve heard Governor Ed Rendell is “worried” about Obama’s chances in Pennsylvania. That is an understatement. Obama will lose a state that hasn’t gone red in generations.

What’s happening here that’s not being reported is that “Reagan Democrats” who vote Republican whenever they feel that Democrats are out of touch, socialist, or too liberal are voting for McCain…and these people are being joined by PUMAs, DeMcCrats for McCain, Hillocrats, whatever you want to call them, who don’t like or trust Obama and who believe McCain/Palin would address the wants and needs of centrist Democrats much better than Obama ever would.

We personally believe this here at HillBuzz. That’s why we are doing this. We do not believe Obama will put the best interests of Americans first — instead, Obama will do what is best for Obama, the way he has always done. We do not trust this man or his socialist Kool-Aid and want no part of him.

In Pennsylvania, we are not alone.

The same people who ran the board for us in the primary — who assured us daily that the polls the media was pushing were wrong in claiming Obama would beat Clinton in PA — tell us on a daily basis that McCain is going to win Pennsylvania.  There’s a damn good chance this won’t even be close, if what people are seeing on the ground right now holds, and is indicative of the whole state.

DEMOCRATS are staffing McCain offices across the state. DEMOCRATS are phone banking and canvassing for McCain. DEMOCRATS are raising large sums to fund this last week of campaigning.

DEMOCRATS.

While hearsay on the ground is always one sided, I have been to a few events where I am hearing this.  To win this election, we need to win PA. I don’t think there is a chance in hell that we can win Pittsburgh, but I am interested in the union vote.  I have argued for some time that in the coming years, we are going to need to drop Wal-Mart and start courting the unions. Bush won a good percent of union members, but we need to expand that base. Todd and Sarah can do that.  She practically lives there now anyway.  Let’s hope on this

More Gender Traitors: Obama Speechwriter Voting for McCain

Wendy Button, a speechwriter for Obama, Edwards and Clinton is voting for McCain/Palin. Get ready for the dogs of war to let lose on the latest gender traitor

Since I started writing speeches more than ten years ago, I have always believed in the Democratic Party. Not anymore. Not after the election of 2008. This transformation has been swift and complete and since I’m a woman writing in the election of 2008, “very emotional.”

[…]

Here we are discussing Governor Palin’s clothes—oh wait, now we’re on to the make-up—not what either man is going to do to save our economy. This isn’t an accident. It is part of a manufactured narrative that she is stupid.

Governor Palin and I don’t agree on a lot of things, mostly social issues. But I have grown to appreciate the Governor. I was one of those initial skeptics and would laugh at the pictures. Not anymore. When someone takes on a corrupt political machine and a sitting governor, that is not done by someone with a low I.Q. or a moral core made of tissue paper. When someone fights her way to get scholarships and work her way through college even in a jagged line, that shows determination and humility you can’t learn from reading Reinhold Niebuhr. When a mother brings her son with special needs onto the national stage with love, honesty, and pride, that gives hope to families like mine as my older brother lives with a mental disability. And when someone can sit on a stage during the Sarah Palin rap on Saturday Night Live, put her hands in the air and watch someone in a moose costume get shot—that’s a sign of both humor and humanity.

Has she made mistakes? Of course, she’s human too. But the attention paid to her mistakes has been unprecedented compared to Senator Obama’s “57 states” remarks or Senator Biden using a version of the Samuel Johnson quote, “There’s nothing like a hanging in the morning to focus a man’s thoughts.”

But thank God for election 2008. We can talk about the wardrobe and make-up even though most people don’t understand the details about Senator Obama’s plan with Iraq. When he says, “all combat troops,” he’s not talking about all troops—it leaves a residual force of as large as 55,000 indefinitely. That’s not ending the war; that’s half a war.

I was dead wrong about the surge and thought it would be a disaster. Senator John McCain led when many of us were ready to quit. Yet we march on as if nothing has changed, wedded to an old plan, and that too is a long way from the Democratic Party.

I can no longer justify what this party has done and can’t dismiss the treatment of women and working people as just part of the new kind of politics. It’s wrong and someone has to say that. And also say that the Democratic Party’s talking points—that Senator John McCain is just four more years of the same and that he’s President Bush—are now just hooker lines that fit a very effective and perhaps wave-winning political argument…doesn’t mean they’re true. After all, he is the only one who’s worked in a bipartisan way on big challenges.

 

Hillary Clinton on the Debate

“I always thought she’d do well”

“composed and effective debater”