TBV and Hotair’s numbers are in line here:
Trust, But Verify believes John McCain will win over Barack Obama, 273-265. Recent polling in Pennsylvania suggests a chance. The effect of Obama’s coal remarks will not make an effect in the polls, but may make a difference in the voting booth so we are moving PA to the McCain camp. Ed Morrisey writes:
Note that I leave Minnesota in the blue column today, despite the virtual dead heat Survey USA shows in its final polling. As Jazz Shaw and James Joyner note, the RCP average shows Obama significantly ahead, but they include the Strib’s MinnPoll that routinely overstates Democratic strength. The same poll has Al Franken ahead of Norm Coleman by four points. Because of its structure, the RCP average lags on movement, and Survey USA shows some movement towards Republicans here — but I don’t think this is the election that moves Minnesota to the red column after 36 years of going blue.
I don’t think this is the election that puts Florida in the blue column, either, or Nevada. Early-vote polling didn’t show enough of an advantage for Obama, and now Republicans will make up the majority of poll-goers in both states. It really comes down to Virginia and Pennsylvania, and a split can favor either candidate. I think Pennsylvania has a real shot at going red, and Virginia’s a toss-up at this point. GOTV will make a difference, but so will those undecideds — and as I’ve said before, if that many people still haven’t made up their mind to vote Obama, then I expect most of them to take the safe fall-back position of McCain.
As far this site goes, recent movement in the northern region of Philadelphia as well as some recent backlash in Pittsburgh leads us to believe tha Pennsylvania can turn. In addition, the Hillary Clinton people are working harder than our people to win Pennsylvania. We seriously need to give her a cabinet seat if we pulll this off and give Will Bower some sort of medal of honor.
Virginia stays blue because of its population shift. Northern Virginia is completely populated by people who work in DC and that is a significant number of the vote which will go Democrat. Appalachia should stay ours, but not in numbers high enough to win the state.
Colorado is a big if. Colorado is as close to a Libertarian state as we have in this Union and Libertarians have been a strange lot this time around. They are obviously in favour of cutting taxes and should support McCain’s anti-big government tendencies, but the “Myth of a Maverick” notion seems to be traveling far and hard. Expect Colorado to look tighter than the polls tell us. The Hispanic vote is overpolled and unreliable. That is the group that is most likely to stay home. In addition, Hispanics that do come out may well break for McCain as they delivered Florida to Bush in 2004.
Also, let us put forth one consideration that will effect tomorrow and the future of the relationship between Wal-Mart and the Republican party. There is a looming specter of card check which scares the pants off many union members. If Obama wins, he has already indicated that he is indebted to union leadership. Card check will pass. If we carry union membership this election, the party will look very different November 5 than it does November 4. Democrats still have room for expansion of their electorate base by incorporating huge numbers of non-voting youth who don’t have economic burdens as well as several other groups. The genius of Karl Rove was to get a non bloc-voting group, the Evangelicals to come out in huge numbers for our guy. As far as we can tell, we are out of new groups. It is a very distinct possibility that we will absorb big labor and make concessions to their leaders in the coming years to increase our numbers. In many ways, it is a marriage that makes sense, but it is a marriage that may well devastate some of our big money donors. Stay tuned.
In addition, if North Carolina is any indication, the youth vote continues to be unreliable. However, expect a signficant increase in the African American vote, especially in urban areas.